Possible $12 Silver TODAY ! SHORTS on Vacation ?

An updated chart eagle:
[link to stockcharts.com]
$13 may not be out of the question IMHO.

As for the CRIMEX wharehouse stocks:
[link to www.nymex.com]

As for songs.....I have a title for a good country song but no lyrics yet. Title= "How can I miss you if you won't go away."

Sounds like a good title for a song you might want to sing to those who can't take a hint !

Best sign in a bar I ever heard of ...

" Be GOOD, OR be GONE."

Only platinum holding it's own now; everything else in the red BUT, SILVER is STILL above $ 12 !

Eagle ( Over and out. )

Best sign I have seen in a bar....

You'll always have a good time with a girl named Boom Boom.

Fly By (Over & Out)

eagle, saw this on another site this morning.

<From Midas last nite...
Aug 03, 08:49
Adrian gets it:

Bill,
Silver is vanishing from the COMEX warehouse in grand style.

Somebody pulled a plug today and another 838,801 ozs gurgled down the drain hole. This brings the total stock pile to 99 Million ozs. The structure of the drawdown was that the dealers had to cough up 631,727 from the registered category while 207,074 ozs left the eligible stocks (owners of silver removing it from the warehouse).

This is starting to be much more exciting than even the Pirates of the Caribbean movie. This is real pirates losing their stash of buried treasure!

The Cartel is walking the gang-plank!
Cheers
Adrian

Bill,
Today August 1 we had yet another stunning drawdown in the COMEX silver warehouse stocks. Stockpiles dropped 539,199 ozs to 98.47 million ozs. There were 1.16 million ozs that left the registered category (dealers inventory) while 629,207 ozs were added to the eligible category (silver stored belonging to clients). Over the last two months silver has left the COMEX at the rate of 9 million ozs per month. If that continues the COMEX will have no silver by May 2007.

This is getting very intriguing.
Cheers
Adrian

hey....Eagle..

hey...ALL..

I have been out of internet for the last 10 days....all the rain in houston....road work....wet phone lines...



I saw this...

Hi Bill,
The COMEX Silver stockpiles continue to validate Adrian Douglas and Ted Butler’s analysis that there is a run on COMEX Silver. Last week there were 1,202,563 ounces received at COMEX and 4,240,455 ounces withdrawn. This resulted in a net reduction of 3,037,892 ounces to 99,848,049 ounces remaining. Some of the daily movements from individual warehouses included receivables of 600,095 and 600,469 ounces and withdraws of 591,131 ounces, 511,443 ounces, 521,071 ounces, 597,640 ounces, and 624,033 ounces. 600,000 ounces of Silver weighs 41,143 lbs. The payload capacity of a standard tractor trailer is 40 to 45 thousand pounds in order to keep total weight under the 80,000 lb highway limit. Aluminum frame trucks have a somewhat higher payload capacity.

In other words, Silver is leaving COMEX by the truck load. Four of these five truckload withdraws were from the eligible category. I am not positive, but I believe that if a new purchaser buys Silver in the contract month and takes delivery to a location other than a COMEX warehouse, then this Silver must come from the registered category. The fact that these truck loads are being removed from the eligible category indicates that people who have bought the Silver in past months or years and had it sitting in the warehouses all this time are now taking deliver off the exchange. These truck loads are not going to people’s basement safes. To me, the most likely explanation is major Silver users are now forced to raid their piggy banks due to scarce Silver. Annual Silver demand in the United States is around 250 million ounces, so there is enough demand to cause reductions at the rates we have been seeing. Regards,
-Bryant


[link to www.lemetropolecafe.com]

this is a great read...all


well....it is the best thing I have read in 10 days...

paladin
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<


DOW THEORY ANALYSIS SAC
The July Newsletter
Playing With Fire!
Enrico Orlandini
3 Aug, 2006

I am writing this Newsletter as Peru prepares for its Independence Day celebration. This is a four day long affair that is a cross between a drunken fest and a political game of liar's poker. This particular Independence Day will usher in a new president, Alan Garcia Perez, who actually isn't so new. Mr. Garcia just happened to be president from 1985 to 1990, and when he left office in 1990 he was considered to be the worst president in Peruvian history. He left the country with a 400%/month inflation rate, negative reserves in the Central Bank, and on the verge of civil war. The Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) terrorist group was literally blowing up Lima one city block at a time. Did I forget to mention that he probably stole more than one billion dollars while he was president? All of this begs the question of just how such a man could become president again? It would be easy to say that it's just the way the world is today, but that explanation leaves a lot to be desired. In Peru's case, I would chalk it up to voter ignorance brought about by years of poor diet, lack of proper medical care, and a less than adequate educational system. This deadly combination seems to have produced a society that can't think beyond today or remember the day before yesterday. I have been here twenty-five years and it's like living in the land time forgot. Probably in all of human history, there has never been a country so rich in raw materials and so poor in human capital as Peru is today. Put five million Japanese or Chinese in Peru and you would have an economic paradise in short order. It's a sad state of affairs!

As tragic as the plight of Peru sounds, it is nothing compared to what is going on in the Middle East. For almost a year I have been attributing the rise in gold to the fact that the yellow metal senses some future event of really tragic proportions. I also said that I didn't have any idea as to what it could be related to. I am sorry to say that is no longer the case. Supply and demand factors aside, gold has focused its attention squarely on the Middle East conflict, an event orchestrated in large part by some insane policy implemented by the present US administration and supported by Israel. Some feel that it's really Israel that's calling the shots, but it doesn't matter1. What matters is the course they're on and the results they'll produce. At the present moment Israel is busy laying waste to Lebanon and it is doing so in such a fashion as to provoke and attack from one or more of its Arab neighbors, specifically Iran with help from Syria. An Iranian attack would be "just cause" for US military intervention, and since they lack the manpower for such an action, it would mean the US would probably play their nuclear card. Think about this for a minute. The US is the first country to develop a nuclear weapon, the first and only country to use such a weapon, and now sixty-one years later they seem to want to do it again. The justification is that Iran possesses, or is on the verge of possessing, weapons of mass destruction. Does that sound familiar? Remember Colin Powell showing the world all the indisputable proof that Iraq possessed such weapons? We never found any did we? I have news for you; you won't find any this time around either.

Just for a moment, I want to turn this argument around and suppose that Iran actually possesses nuclear weapons. Given their religious beliefs, culture, and history just how do you think they'll react? I'm not an expert on the Middle East, but I think I can figure it out by myself. If they've got it, they'll use it! Who do you think they'll direct their rage against? Why Israel of course! Do you have any idea what kind of mess this is going to create? There will be no winners here; only those who go down in flames. Both sides are going to risk everything, they are going to lose everything and what is worse, both sides are going to inflict tremendous suffering on the rest of the world.

Why would anyone want to go down such a dangerous road? Well, for the US a lot of it has to do with oil whereas for Israel it would be a chance to settle some old scores once and for all. I have no idea who threw the first stone in the Middle East some three thousand years ago, but if George Jr. is dumb enough to start dropping nuclear ordinance on the Arabs, and I think he is, you will be fighting the next war throwing stones from your respective caves2. Anyone who thinks China and Russia will sit quietly by while the US goes about the confiscation of +/- 50% of the world's oil is more than a few bricks shy of a full load. So far they have been content to let America kill innocent men, women, and children in Iraq and Afghanistan, all in the name of democracy, because they know full well it's a war we can't win. Russia can write volumes about going down to defeat in Afghanistan. The implementation of nuclear weapons changes all that, even low grade nuclear weapons, as the Arab nations would be powerless to fight back. At least over the sort run. Over the run long the United States would reap what it sows as the Al Qaeda would find some way to explode a nuclear weapon on American soil. It's worth remember that throughout the course of human history, whenever a bully has started throwing stones, someone eventually comes along with a bigger stone. The process of retribution often takes years, or even decades, but it inevitably happens. Mr. Bush will find that out the hard way.

For those of you who feel safe living in your log cabins nestled in the mountains of Montana, complete with solar power, a ten acre vegetable garden, your own well, and a satellite dish, I have one thing to say: think again! Don't be so naive as to believe you can simply explode a few nuclear bombs on the other side of the world and go on with your life as if nothing happened. More years ago than I care to admit, I took a biology course from a professor who was a bit of a rebel. In the middle of the semester, he dedicated a week's worth or lectures to a topic most people in today's world know nothing about, nuclear winter. It surprised me to learn that it was only necessary to explode half a dozen nuclear bombs on our globe to seriously alter for many decades the earth's weather patterns. In short, you would see snow at the Equator during the summer months and temperatures would hit freezing. I live just below the Equator in a city of ten million people where half the houses don't have roofs (it rains once every twenty years in Lima so most feel a roof is a luxury they can live without). Maybe 1% of the houses have a heating system. Nuclear winter would probably kill half the people in Lima within a week.

Having spent the first eighteen years of my life in the US, I find it difficult to relate what I see today with the values instilled in me by the late fifties/early sixties Midwestern culture I was exposed to as a child. The adult influences of my youth were hardened by the Depression and World War II. They knew what it meant to suffer and they were no strangers to hard work. They also had compassion, something that is lacking in today's generation. Too much X-box I guess. My grandfather left the house at 6 am every morning and didn't come home until 7 pm, and he was happy to do it. He built a multi-million dollar business on his word and a hand shake; not once did I ever see him sign a contract (except when he bought land). Among other things he owned a furniture and appliance store where he sold everything on credit. He never asked you to fill out a form or requested references. Instead he would go to your house, sit in your kitchen for thirty minutes to an hour, and just talk to you. When he walked out of the house, he knew if he was going to finance your purchase or not. Quite often he sold to people who were quite poor and couldn't get credit from anyone else, and did so at one to two percent above prime. In the forty years he ran the business, his company never had bad debt in access of one-tenth of one percent of his gross sales. Never! Sometimes he would go two or three years at a time without any clients missing a payment. In spite of the distortions that exist, I'm convinced he would do just as well in today's world. He worked until the day he died, and the sad part is that his offspring destroyed a lifetime's work in just a few short years.

I'm way off the track here, so let's get back to gold and the message it's trying to deliver. Gold has been smelling disaster for months now and that's why the last rally went beyond just about anyone's expectations. It's also why the recent correction of 25% was so short time wise. Everyone in New York and Washington has carefully sidestepped gold's message in an effort to paint a "business as usual" scenario. Things are fine in Iraq, and Iran is an "isolated" case. Spin, spin, and more spin! The yellow metal has been around for five thousand years, and there isn't much under the sun that it hasn't seen. The George Bush's of the world have come and gone while gold has stood the test of time. Like Mother Nature, you just can't fool it. If I am right, and we are standing on the edge of the abyss, you are going to see gold rise farther and faster than just about anyone could have thought. Unless I miss my guess, a new all-time high will be seen by year's end, and that will be just the beginning. The administration will do everything in their power, including confiscation, to paint a picture of satisfaction and contentment, but they'll fail in the end. You can outlaw the truth, but only for so long.

We've been on the edge before, and cooler heads have always prevailed, but I just can't get past the feeling that this time is different. There are very few people in Congress, the Senate, and the White House who have suffered hard times. The few that exist, like Charles Byrd from West Virginia, seem to have given up. Kennedy isn't even the shadow of his brother Robert, but given what happened to his family, I suppose it's understandable. He learned the hard way that you just don't tilt against windmills. I had high hopes for McCain but he seems to have chosen a different path. He ceased being an individual and became a politician somewhere along the way. If I'm right and government fails the people, where do you turn to? How does one protect himself from the four horsemen? Personally, I only see one way out. Any and all improvement, and there will be improvement, will be on an individual level. Institutions and political parties will be of little or no help. Don't forget that America began with just fifty-four individuals locked in a room, ready to sacrifice everything, in order to build a republic. They succeeded. The same thing happened with the Depression and World War II, and will happen again as there will be some individuals who will step to the front, lead by example, and leave the country a better place. The US will not go the way of Rome and Carthage, at least not yet. The pain and suffering that I see on the horizon will leave the US a much better place. The United States will become a Republic again, as it was intended to be. But as usual, there will be a big price to pay.



read it all here..

[link to www.321gold.com]

silver is in the play/move


I made a buy of silver this weekend..

I have my money where my mouth is..


looks like all things are moving to a head.

cash....and....PM's are the place to be

paladin

Wednesday -- Fed announcement -- is the big day.

Bill,
The COMEX warehouse stocks on August 3 climbed above 100 million ozs to reach 100.4 Million. But the increase has been mainly in the "eligible" category. This is silver that has been moved into the warehouses which is being stored there but belongs to clients. It is not available for delivery against futures contracts. That is the "registered" category of inventory which continues to shrink and is now only 43.7 Million ozs.

The set-up for silver fireworks could not be better.
Cheers
Adrian

Bill,
The warehouse inventory report for COMEX has just been posted for August 4. Total inventory rose to 101. 26 Million ozs. But again it is the "eligible" category that saw the gain. Eligible increased by 965,212 ozs and the "registered" inventory decreased 135,261 ozs to 43.64 million ozs. This seems to be the warehouse equivalent of "painting the tape". Silver is being moved on to the exchange that belongs to someone else just to boost total inventory. The amount that is available for trading continues to shrink.

Tick, tick, tick.
Cheers
Adrian


[link to www.lemetropolecafe.com]

Bill,
The squeeeeze on the Fed just got tighter. Last night both England and the ECB bumped their interest rates up:

"On Thursday... the market's focus abruptly shifted away from earnings when the Bank of England surprised observers by hiking its key rate by a quarter-point to 4.75%, taking back a quarter-point cut it made a year ago. The move was not widely expected... In addition, the European Central Bank, in an expected move, announced a quarter-point increase in its key rate to 3%. In recent weeks ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet had signaled the move with hawkish comments."*

Mr. Bernanke's European colleagues have done him no favors. If he matches their increase and further hikes American interest rates, then he will be making a major contribution towards regime change in the USA in November. The housing market is already slipping and sliding away and with it the personal fortunes of half the country. For example, in Placer County, California home prices dipped 7.6% from June 2005-June 2006, while foreclosures jumped 126%.** The Federal Reserve Governors certainly realize that the Administration doesn't want to be saddled with an accelerating decline in home prices just as the country heads into mid-term elections. Yet, if the Fed doesn't hike rates it will be declaring open season on the dollar.

It is interesting that this display of European interest rate independence coincides with the ECB's virtual withdrawal from the gold sale arena. I wonder if you can still call something a cartel if it only has one member left?
best wishes,
Peter R.



[link to www.lemetropolecafe.com]

Mortgage Default Notices Soar 67%
20,752 homeowners in the state were warned last quarter. That's still below the average.
By David Streitfeld, Times Staff Writer
August 3, 2006


As the housing boom fades, a rising number of Californians are struggling to hold on to their homes.



[link to www.latimes.com]

bump for a new day..

I have a lot to post.

paladin

TED BUTLER COMMENTARY

August 8, 2006


A BLIND MAN’S WORLD


(This essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler, an independent consultant. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)


I can’t remember the first time I heard it, or who might have said it, but it’s a thought I’ve pondered for many years, namely, the question of how would you describe color to someone blind from birth? Or music to someone deaf? Just the notion of it brings about the perspective that we take many basic gifts for granted for which we should be profoundly grateful, and how our hearts go out to those deprived of life’s blessings.


What makes it impossible to describe color to the blind or music to the deaf is the profound and overwhelming condition that blindness and deafness entail. These are conditions so overpowering as to almost defy description. The blind and the deaf must overcome their afflictions by relying on, and developing, their other senses to adjust to life. It is no easy task.


This may seem to be an unusual start to an article that will attempt to convince you to buy silver, but I ask you to bear with me. I will attempt to get you to consider silver in a way much different from any conventional analysis. In fact, it is as unconventional as it gets.


You see, when it comes to silver, we are all blind – you, me, the producers, the industrial consumers, the government, the silver analysts, and even the short manipulators. Just like those who have been born without God’s gift of sight or sound, we have all been born blind to silver. It doesn’t matter if you are 20 years old or 90. What we are blind and deaf to, when it comes to silver, is this simple fact – no one alive has ever witnessed a free market in silver.


Let me repeat that - no one alive has any practical experience with silver in a free market. Now that I think of it, no one dead had any experience with silver in a free market either. How could they? Silver has never been free. Not now, not ever. Please allow me to explain, and in doing so, hopefully convince you to buy as much silver as you can possibly afford.


The reason we are all blind in silver is that a variety of forces have converged over hundreds and thousands of years that prevented silver from being freely traded. The most dominant force was silver’s historical role as money. (Many still hold that silver still has a monetary role, but I am not one of them.) For many centuries, silver functioned as money and governments regularly assigned rigid prices. Government-assigned or controlled prices are the antithesis of a free market. Anyone who lived through the hundreds and thousands of years that these assigned prices prevailed, never knew a free market in silver.


More recently, say over the past 100 years or so, government policies, particularly in the U.S., precluded silver from free market statues. In the beginning of the last century, the U.S. Government was acquiring hundreds of millions, and even billions, of ounces of silver due to the Sherman Act. This act was a result of political influence from the western states, where silver was mined. If the government didn’t acquire silver at predetermined fixed prices, the price would have been much lower. Thus no free market.


Later, over the past 60 years, due to influence from the Silver Users Association and coinage programs, the silver acquired by the government, measured in the billions of ounces, was systematically released to the market, again at fixed prices. Thus, still no free market.


Now, after more than 100 years, the U.S. Government is finished acquiring and disposing of billions of ounces of silver at fixed prices. But silver has continued to be fixed, or manipulated in price, by leasing and the concentrated short selling on the COMEX. Once again, this means no free market price for silver. Therefore, no one reading these words has ever experienced a free market in silver. We are all blind to experiencing a free market in silver, you, me, and everyone.


But, just like those born blind or deaf, it doesn’t mean we can’t adjust to our condition and make the best of it. Just as they must rely on their other senses to experience life, we have to rely on our minds and our common sense to compensate for our lack of experience with a free market in silver.


The very first thing you must do is to decide if what I’ve told you so far is correct. Does any independent reading of history suggest that silver has been in free market ever, or particularly in the past hundred years? Did not the U.S. Government first acquire billions of ounces of silver and then dispose of it, all at fixed prices? Has there not been the practice of leasing, and documented evidence that an unusual and extremely large concentrated short position exists?


Once you have agreed what I’ve said is true, it should take you no time to conclude that we have not had, in our lifetime, anything that remotely resembles a free market in silver. So, what does this mean? Please remember, I am not trying to trick you or misstate anything. I am admitting openly, that even though I have studied silver intently for more than 20 years, I have no practical hands-on experience with dealing in silver in a free market. It has not been possible. I am as blind as anyone.


If silver has never been in a free market, it would be a mistake to pretend otherwise. We must not assign free market characteristics to something that is not in a free market. Thus, if we know silver has not been in a free market, we must not rely on the free market rules and interpretations for investing in it. The concept that I am trying to convey is for you to recognize the reality that silver has been, and is still, manipulated, and to deal with it on that basis. I’ve invested a lot of time and energy in trying to end the manipulation in silver, but that is not my purpose here. My purpose here is to show you how the manipulation is your greatest ally for investing in silver right now.


The reason the manipulation in silver is your best friend, as an investor, is that the price of silver is artificially depressed. However, all manipulations must end. You cannot distort the law of supply and demand forever. When manipulations end, there is always a violent move in the opposite direction of the manipulation. Since silver has been manipulated downward for more than half a century, we know it will explode upward once the manipulation is ended. The trick is timing. If a manipulation is still likely to last for years, or even decades, that would prove to be too long a wait for most investors.


How long must we wait for the silver manipulation to end and for prices to explode? I’ll give you my opinion, but you have to decide for yourself. I think that the silver manipulation is going to end very soon. Let me give you my reasons.


The main force behind the silver manipulation has been the dumping of billions of ounces of silver inventories by governments and others, by straight sales, leasing or common coinage minting and then melting. This silver was dumped on the market and was consumed. These billions of ounces no longer exist, as confirmed by inventory statistics. The short-selling scam on the COMEX also appears to be on its last legs. I base this on how obvious the concentrated short selling has become and the inability of any regulator to adequately defend it. Without continued physical silver to dump on the market, and the paper short sellers on the defensive, the silver manipulation is on its last legs, in my opinion.


When the silver manipulation ends, as it must, we will suddenly and violently begin the era of free market silver. This is an era that will last forever, from whatever day it begins. For the first time in history, silver will be freely priced. Please try to visualize this. I know I am making an outrageous statement. I am telling you that for the first time in thousands of years, silver will suddenly be freely priced. There will be no force that can contain it. It will be as shocking as if a blind man could suddenly see.


Precisely because there are no longer billions, or hundreds of millions, or even tens of millions of ounces of silver on the hands of governments available to be dumped on the market, for the very first time in world history, the manipulation must end soon. There are hundreds of millions of ounces of silver in the world, of course, but these ounces are not available for dumping on the market. These remaining ounces are now held by investors looking for much higher prices to sell, not for dumping at current prices.


Precisely because the COMEX short selling scam has reached such obviously manipulative levels, it will end soon. Manipulations can’t thrive under the light of day. With no big available supplies to be dumped on the market, and with the paper short sellers under the spotlight, it is hard not to conclude that the manipulation will soon end and the price of silver will launch towards the heavens. Then the bargain basement, low-risk buy levels will be gone, quite literally forever.


When the manipulation ends, as it surely must, attention will be turned to how high the price might climb. This is what we all have no experience with. This is where we are all blind. Maybe it is to $50 or $100. Maybe, as my silver mentor Izzy believes, it will exceed the price of gold. As crazy as that sounds, we are talking about a profound change in silver, from a manipulation existing for hundreds of years to an era where silver can never be manipulated again. After all, we are very clearly running out of silver, whereas we are not running out of gold.


The perfect time to buy silver is the day before the manipulation ends. If it were possible to know when that day might be, I would tell you. But it is impossible to know exactly when. What is possible to know is that day is coming, and coming soon. What is possible to know is that it will be better to be fully invested long before that day arrives, and not one day after.


If I am even close to being correct in my assessment of silver, you are being presented with something that is actually beyond a lifetime opportunity. This is an opportunity that has been many hundreds of years developing. That we are alive and in position to actually take financial advantage of this great change is almost beyond comprehension. The transition from a manipulated market to a free market is the most dramatic change possible. To catch that transition properly positioned can create a lifetime of wealth. The one sure way to guarantee you are properly positioned is with real silver. The vast majority of the world’s investors will necessarily be blind to this opportunity because they are unaware of the great dynamics in force. If you open your eyes to the real facts, and act while there is time to act, you will see the future and reap the rewards.


[link to www.investmentrarities.com]