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>>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<<
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 511797
9/27/2008 8:14 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
The credit bubble, now in the process of contracting, took thirty years to build. It is not going to disappear overnight with a quick (or not so quick) fix from Congress, a few billion invested by Warren Buffett or a sovereign wealth fund, or another rescue package from the Fed.
We will face the consequences for at least a decade.
[link to www.incrediblecharts.com] |
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lostprobe
User ID: 511798
9/27/2008 8:25 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
could i please have side order of war to go with that depression? |
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Linzartart
User ID: 476887
9/27/2008 8:28 AM
 | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
THEY ADMIT IT AT LAST.
DUH.
US Treasury chief says Social Security 'unsustainable'.
[ link to rawstory.com]
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday that America's Social Security program for the retired is "financially unsustainable" and needs an urgent overhaul.
Paulson, speaking after a government panel had completed its annual assessment of the Social Security and Medicare benefits programs, said waves of retiring Americans threaten to soon deplete available funds stockpiled in the two programs.
"As the baby boom generation moves into retirement, these programs face progressively larger financial challenges," Paulson said.
unstable is a subtle way of putting it. theyve raped our money via embezzlement for years
Afterism; A concise clever statement you dont think of until its to late. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 511797
9/27/2008 11:06 PM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
[link to www.oftwominds.com]
History is being made this weekend, dear readers, for the bailout, should it pass, will mark a Rubicon in the demise of American capitalism and lock in the coming Depression.
The Depression lies just ahead, regardless of what version of the bailout is passed into law; but the bailout will lengthen the Depression and deepen the pain which will be inflicted on taxpayers/wage earners. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 513145
9/29/2008 11:09 PM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
lots of good reading material on this thread
get informed folks !
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 513145
9/30/2008 12:53 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
The Banker’s Coup and the BailOut Scam.
Market Ticker has provided charts from the Federal Reserve that prove that Bernanke has withdrawn $125 billion from the banking system “in the last four days” alone to create a crisis situation that will incite credit market mayhem and increase the likelihood of passing the bill.
This is coercion of the worst kind.
[link to onlinejournal.com]
[link to market-ticker.denninger.net]
[link to www.gmtfo.com] |
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Pitt Bull
User ID: 513848
9/30/2008 1:03 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
[ link to www.newsday.com]
A new Great Depression ? It's different this time.
Fear is spreading with the financial system in disarray. But the global boom is ongoing, unemployment is low and the government has new tools to address the downturn.
WHICH JUST DELAYS A BIT LONGER - THE INEVITABLE BIG FUCKING CRASH.
Indeed it's all an illusion the usa was bankrupt since the end of WW2 the us basiqually kept bullying other nations and feeding it's economy with petro dollars.
That's also the reason why iran will likely be attacked by the us it has an oil bourse like the nymex crude exchange only this oil exchange will trade in many currencies this is basiqually what is destroying the us economy.
Ahmadjinedad is not an idiot he found the weakness of the us so did saddam back then.
This bourse opened in feb 2008 and look at the the dow since this date it has been on terminal decline.
Iran is killing the west behind the scene that is also the reason why it has the support of china russia venezuela and many other countries us economic hegemony has ended he saided in one of his speeches.
This is what they all mean i think with new world order a world where the us dictatorship ends.
This could lead to WW3 if the bankers crash foreign economies in retaliation this will happen then
[link to fr.youtube.com]
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 514148
9/30/2008 10:15 PM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
The credit bubble, now in the process of contracting, took thirty years to build. It is not going to disappear overnight with a quick (or not so quick) fix from Congress, a few billion invested by Warren Buffett or a sovereign wealth fund, or another rescue package from the Fed.
We will face the consequences for at least a decade.
[ link to www.incrediblecharts.com]
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 514148
10/1/2008 12:27 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
Peter Schiff, former advisor to Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul, and also the author of Crash Proof, which predicted the current financial crisis.
[link to www.abc.net.au]
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 514148
10/1/2008 11:31 AM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 484610
10/2/2008 1:24 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
Schiff has been getting good exposure in Oz lately
cool |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 484610
10/2/2008 2:53 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
Everybody needs to watch last Sunday's "60 Minutes" show on CBS. I'm actually in a state of semi-shock that the mainstream media actually did its job here.
I would hope that you may have caught the 60 Minutes interview with Hank Paulson this last weekend wherein he was advised of the media intercepting
several emails between Wall Street gurus, gloating and stating they hoped
they would be rich and retired "by the time this house of cards folds" . . .
For what it's worth, the elite and the upper levels of the management classes seem to be snapping out of their narcosis. According to the Financial Times, the wealthy are now hoarding gold bullion:
Investors in gold are demanding "unprecedented" amounts of bullion bars
and coins and moving them into their own vaults as fears about the health
of the global financial system deepen. Industry executives and bankers at
the London Bullion Market Association annual meeting said the extent of the
move into physical gold was unseen and driven by the very rich. There is
an enormous pick-up in investment demand. I have never seen a market
like this in my 33-year career,” said Jeremy Charles, chairman of the LBMA.
"The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars." The move comes as
fears grow among investors over the losses at investments previously
considered almost risk-free, such as money funds. Spot gold prices in
London on Tuesday traded at about $900 an ounce, more than 25% above
the level before Lehman Brothers’ collapse. Executives said gold refineries
and government mints were working at full throttle but acknowledged they
were suffering shortages, particularly on gold coins.
Keep in mind that Barton Biggs - a former executive at Morgan Stanley - has been advising his clients to have fully stocked doomsteads they could bug out to up and running for some time now:
Barton Biggs has some offbeat advice for the rich: Insure yourself against
war and disaster by buying a remote farm or ranch and stocking it with
"seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.'' The "etc.''
must mean guns. "A few rounds over the approaching brigands' heads
would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to
pillage,'' he writes in his new book, "Wealth, War and Wisdom.''
Bottom line is the financial media may still be firehosing the peasants with kool-aid but the financial elite are earnestly manning their lifeboats while the more intelligent members of the management classes are scrambling to at least secure life-vests for themselves and their families.
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Wealthy investors hoard bullion.
By Javier Blas in Kyoto
September 30 2008
Investors in gold are demanding “unprecedented” amounts of bullion bars and coins and moving them into their own vaults as fears about the health of the global financial system deepen.
Industry executives and bankers at the London Bullion Market Association annual meeting said the extent of the move into physical gold was unseen and driven by the very rich.
“There is an enormous pick-up in investment demand. I have never seen a market like this in my 33-year career,” said Jeremy Charles, chairman of the LBMA. “The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars.”
The move comes as fears grow among investors over the losses at investment vehicles previously considered almost risk-free, such as money funds.
Philip Clewes-Garner, associate director of precious metals at HSBC, added that investors were not flying into gold simply because they saw it as a haven amid Wall Street’s woes. “It is a flight into gold because it is a physical asset,” he said.
“Vault staff are also doing overtime,” another banker at the LBMA meeting said, adding that investors in some countries were paying premiums of up to $25 an ounce above the London spot price to secure scarce gold bars.
Spot gold prices in London on Tuesday traded at about $900 an ounce, more than 25 per cent above the level before Lehman Brothers’ collapse. Although some traders said the rush into physical gold could boost prices, others cautioned that prices were depressing jewellery demand, capping any price gain. Industry executives said gold refineries and government mints were working at full throttle to keep up with investor demand, but acknowledged they were suffering from shortages, particularly on coins.
Johan Botha, a spokesman for the Rand Refinery in South Africa, which manufactures the Krugerrand, the world’s most popular gold coin, said the plant was now running at full capacity seven days a week. “Even so, now and then we have shortages,” he said.
The Austrian mint, which manufactures the Vienna Philharmonic, a popular gold coin in Europe, said it had extended work to the weekends to accommodate soaring demand.
Last week, the US mint suspended the sale of its American Buffalo coin after it ran out of stocks.
[link to www.ft.com]
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Biggs's Tips for Rich: Expect War, Study Blitz, Mind Markets
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Barton Biggs has some offbeat advice for the rich: Insure yourself against war and disaster by buying a remote farm or ranch and stocking it with ``seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.''
The ``etc.'' must mean guns.
``A few rounds over the approaching brigands' heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage,'' he writes in his new book, ``Wealth, War and Wisdom.''
Biggs is no paranoid survivalist. He was chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley before leaving in 2003 to form hedge fund Traxis Partners. He doesn't lock and load until the last page of this smart look at how World War II warped share prices, gutted wealth and remains a warning to investors.
His message: Listen to markets, learn from history and prepare for the worst.
``Wealth, War and Wisdom'' fills a void. Library shelves are packed with volumes on World War II. The history of stock markets also has been ably recorded, notably in Robert Sobel's ``The Big Board.'' Yet how many books track the intersection of the two?
The ``wisdom'' in the alliterative title refers to the spooky way markets can foreshadow the future. Biggs became fascinated with this phenomenon after discovering by chance that equity markets sensed major turning points in the war.
The British stock market bottomed out in late June 1940 and started rising again before the truly grim days of the Battle of Britain in July to October, when the Germans were splintering London with bombs and preparing to invade the U.K.
`Epic Bottom'
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plumbed ``an epic bottom'' in late April and early May of 1942, then began climbing well before the U.S. victory in the Battle of Midway in June turned the tide against the Japanese.
Berlin shares ``peaked at the high-water mark of the German attack on Russia just before the advance German patrols actually saw the spires of Moscow in early December of 1941.''
``Those were the three great momentum changes of World War II -- although at the time, no one except the stock markets recognized them as such.''
Biggs isn't suggesting that Mr. Market is infallible: He can get ``panicky and crazy in the heat of the moment,'' he says. Over the long haul, though, markets display what James Surowiecki calls ``the wisdom of crowds.''
Like giant voting machines, they aggregate the judgments of individuals acting independently into a collective assessment. Biggs stress-tests this theory against events that shook nations from the Depression through the Korean War, which he calls ``the last battle of World War II.''
Refresher Course
Biggs has read widely and thought deeply. He has a pleasing conversational style, an eye for memorable anecdotes and a weakness for Winston Churchill's quips. His book works as a brisk refresher course.
What really packs a wallop, though, is his combination of military history, market action, maps and charts. It's one thing to say that the London market scraped bottom before the Battle of Britain. It's another to show it.
In May and June 1940, some 338,000 British and French troops had been evacuated from Dunkirk by a flotilla of fishing boats, tugs, barges, yachts and river steamers. The French and Belgian armies had collapsed; the Dutch had surrendered. Britain stood alone, as bombs shattered London and the Nazis prepared to invade. Yet stocks rallied.
Mankind endures ``an episode of great wealth destruction'' at least once every century, Biggs reminds us. So the wealthy should prepare to ride out a disaster, be it a tsunami, a market meltdown or Islamic terrorists with a dirty bomb.
The rich get complacent, assuming they will have time ``to extricate themselves and their wealth'' when trouble comes, Biggs says. The rich are mistaken, as the Holocaust proves.
``Events move much faster than anyone expects,'' he says, ``and the barbarians are on top of you before you can escape.''
``Wealth, War and Wisdom'' is from Wiley (358 pages, $29.95).
[link to www.bloomberg.com]
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NoNameMe
User ID: 489456
10/2/2008 2:57 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
YET MORE EVIDENCE OF THE MEGA CRASH THAT IS COMING.
Wall Street Winners Get Billion-Dollar Paydays.
...Since 1913, the United States witnessed only one other year of such unequal wealth distribution — 1928, the year before the stock market crashed...
[ link to www.nytimes.com]
So, are you saying that we have a year before things go bust? More than enough time to get the frock out, I'd say! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 517240
10/4/2008 8:43 AM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 517734
10/5/2008 12:50 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
Betrayed by the Bailout: The Death of Democracy.
[link to www.globalresearch.ca]
Entrusting tremendous political and financial power (and a ton of borrowed money that taxpayers will have to repay with interest) into Paulson’s sole discretion, members of Congress must have been aware that, prior to his cabinet appointment in 2006, Paulson worked for 32 years at Goldman Sachs, one of the Wall Street firms that stands to benefit greatly from his "actions."
Paulson, who cashed out his Goldman stock valued at $575 million to become the Secretary of Treasury (without having to pay any taxes on the sale), earned more than $53 million in pocket change during just his last two years at Goldman Sachs for innovations such as a new line of "Mortgage Backed Securities." Gambling more than a trillion dollars on risky subprime second mortgages, Paulson cleverly converted them into AAA-rated "secure" investments by purchasing guarantees from the American International Group.
AIG, coincidentally, was just "bailed out" two weeks ago by Secretary Paulson for $85 billion (of borrowed money that taxpayers will have to repay with interest), averting a devastating loss by Goldman Sachs, who was holding more than $20 billion in otherwise worthless second mortgages.
Is it surprising that Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman’s current CEO, was present with Paulson when the decision was made to bailout AIG? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 518355
10/5/2008 9:26 PM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
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Fuck a Duck !
User ID: 518513
10/6/2008 11:26 PM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
The Invisible One Quadrillion Dollar Equation.
www.mi2g.com/cgi/mi2g/press/280908.php
[link to www.gilacommunity.net]
According to various distinguished sources including the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland -- the central bankers' bank -- the amount of outstanding derivatives worldwide as of December 2007 crossed USD 1.144 Quadrillion, ie, USD 1,144 Trillion.
The main categories of the USD 1.144 Quadrillion derivatives market were the following:
1. Listed credit derivatives stood at USD 548 trillion;
2. The Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives stood in notional or face value at USD 596 trillion and included:
a. Interest Rate Derivatives at about USD 393+ trillion;
b. Credit Default Swaps at about USD 58+ trillion;
c. Foreign Exchange Derivatives at about USD 56+ trillion;
d. Commodity Derivatives at about USD 9 trillion;
e. Equity Linked Derivatives at about USD 8.5 trillion; and
f. Unallocated Derivatives at about USD 71+ trillion.
Quadrillion ?
That is a number only super computing engineers and astronomers used to use, not economists and bankers! For example, the North star is "just" a couple of quadrillion miles away, ie, a few thousand trillion miles.
The new "Roadrunner" supercomputer built by IBM for the US Department of Energy's Los Alamos National Laboratory has achieved a peak performance of 1.026 Peta Flop per second -- becoming the first supercomputer ever to reach this milestone.
One Quadrillion Floating Point Operations (Flops) per second is 1 Peta Flop/s, ie, 1,000 Trillion Flops per second. It is estimated that all the data found on all the websites and stored on computers across the world totals more than One Exa byte of memory, ie, 1,000 Quadrillion bytes of data.
Whilst outstanding derivatives are notional amounts until they are crystallised, actual exposure is measured by the net credit equivalent. This is normally a lower figure unless many variables plot a locus in the wrong direction simultaneously.
This could be because of catastrophic unpredictable events, ie, "Black Swans", such as cascades of bankruptcies and nationalisations, when the net exposure can balloon and become considerably larger or indeed because some extremely dislocating geo-political or geo-physical events take place simultaneously.
Also, the notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. This means that no large OTC derivative house can be allowed to go broke without falling into the arms of another. Whatever funds within reason are required to rescue failing international investment banks, deposit banks and financial entities ought to be provided on a case by case basis.
This is the asymmetric nature of derivatives and here lies the potential for systemic risk to the global economic system and financial markets if nothing is done.
He later goes on to put this figure of $1.14 Quadrillion in perspective ...
1. The entire GDP of the US is about USD 14 trillion.
2. The entire US money supply is also about USD 15 trillion.
3. The GDP of the entire world is USD 50 trillion. USD 1,144 trillion is 22 times the GDP of the whole world.
4. The real estate of the entire world is valued at about USD 75 trillion.
5. The world stock and bond markets are valued at about USD 100 trillion.
6. The big banks alone own about USD 140 trillion in derivatives.
7. Bear Stearns had USD 13+ trillion in derivatives and went bankrupt in March. Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers and AIG have all 'collapsed' because of complex securities and derivatives exposures in September.
8. The population of the whole planet is about 6 billion people. So the derivatives market alone represents about USD 190,000 per person on the planet.
Oops. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 518513
10/7/2008 1:35 PM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
The Hedge Fund Subprime Credit Crunch Explained.
The ongoing crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage defaults continues to spiral into new directions, making it difficult for even experienced market watchers to comprehend the complete picture and its implication for the financial markets. Therefore this article attempts to explain the crisis and what it implies for future interest rate trends.
[link to news.goldseek.com] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 518513
10/8/2008 10:22 PM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 518513
10/8/2008 11:36 PM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 521338
10/10/2008 11:57 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
and so it begins... |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 521338
10/10/2008 1:55 PM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 523329
10/11/2008 9:53 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
Deeper in Debt.
14th September, 2007
by Steve Keen
[link to cpd.org.au]
Australians have an unsustainable debt addiction, which will be hard to kick, and painful to recover from. A new report by CPD fellow Steve Keen has found that in just 18 months time we may be spending as much of the national income on interest payments as we were in 1990 - when interest rates were at 17 per cent.
Australia's level of irresponsible lending isn’t as high as that which brought on the US subprime crisis, but because our debt to GDP ratio is growing so much faster the impact of any slowdown will be more severe here – and the pain will be much more widely spread. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 523329
10/12/2008 12:16 AM | |
Zone 5
User ID: 524112
10/12/2008 9:28 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 523329
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Woman On The Edge
User ID: 470724
10/12/2008 9:38 AM
 | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
"Courage & knowledge always triumph over fear & ignorance"
Poverty has eluded me for years; Thank God I have finally arrived. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 523329
10/12/2008 9:59 AM | |
goddess isis
User ID: 524179
10/12/2008 10:01 AM | | Re: >>THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION<< | Quote |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 524820
10/13/2008 4:47 AM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 526001
10/14/2008 12:12 PM | |
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