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| | Page 1, 2, 3, 4 | 7.0 Japan
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470202
7/19/2008 12:39 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
so after all the escalating shaking the other day off the west coast, we have a eq in japan today, and you say someone is expecting one tommorrow, too? |
| Geogal 
Hu ka pele, lava pour forth
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 12:42 AM
 | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
there's a Hawaiian scientist that published a paper some years ago with the accumulated data from the Hawaiian history. He mapped a direct correlation. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 470202
Link? I'd love to read that paper!
Woman of white garment, foreign woman, earth-eating woman, taking and giving life, she is Pele
"ONCE IN HIS LIFE, EVERY MAN IS ENTITLED TO FALL MADLY IN LOVE WITH A GORGEOUS REDHEAD" - LUCILLE BALL |
| coolhandluke74
GLP Bouncer
User ID: 467538
7/19/2008 12:42 AM
 | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
I think in the next month or so we will see a 8.0 somewhere.
New Madrid or the west coast.
Nothing is ever as it seems |
| Geogal
Hu ka pele, lava pour forth
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 12:45 AM
| | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
damn, I am confused!
LOL Quoting: Anonymous Coward 470405
S'ok. The best way I remember is "land of the rising sun" and that hawaii is one of the LAST places to celebrate New Years, while Japan is one of the first... I like fireworks, A LOT.. but can't stay awake to midnight anymore my time. So I start watching them on TV in Japan and the south pacific islands.
Woman of white garment, foreign woman, earth-eating woman, taking and giving life, she is Pele
"ONCE IN HIS LIFE, EVERY MAN IS ENTITLED TO FALL MADLY IN LOVE WITH A GORGEOUS REDHEAD" - LUCILLE BALL |
| Geogal
Hu ka pele, lava pour forth
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 12:47 AM
| | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
I think in the next month or so we will see a 8.0 somewhere.
New Madrid or the west coast. Quoting: coolhandluke74
More likely Indonesia. But, we'll see.
Woman of white garment, foreign woman, earth-eating woman, taking and giving life, she is Pele
"ONCE IN HIS LIFE, EVERY MAN IS ENTITLED TO FALL MADLY IN LOVE WITH A GORGEOUS REDHEAD" - LUCILLE BALL |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470202
7/19/2008 12:49 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Link? I'd love to read that paper! Quoting: Geogal
I've been racking my brains here trying to remember. What I do remember is he claimed (at that time) a higher rate of accuracy than other's. I was so impressed I called him. As I recall he's at the university, on the main island. I bet if you looked at the university web sites you can find it, because he was posting the reports. He's well known academicly there(but that was at least 6/7 years ago). |
| confusefed
User ID: 470405
7/19/2008 12:56 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
I don't know what they can or can't do with HAARP,
but as to generating energy,that might not be necessary
consider a transistor or an electron tube
you have the base,or bias supplying the power, in this case it could be a natural source
you have the emitter,which can be low power, its like a swing vote,so to speak and controls the power coming from the bias
and the receptor, that is, where the controlled power goes
if they are doing that on a grand scale there may be plenty of potential energy to tap |
| Geogal
Hu ka pele, lava pour forth
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 1:06 AM
| | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Link? I'd love to read that paper!
I've been racking my brains here trying to remember. What I do remember is he claimed (at that time) a higher rate of accuracy than other's. I was so impressed I called him. As I recall he's at the university, on the main island. I bet if you looked at the university web sites you can find it, because he was posting the reports. He's well known academicly there(but that was at least 6/7 years ago). Quoting: Anonymous Coward 470202
If I can't find the paper on the web, I will do so. With the amount of info you gave me here, I may actually be able to find it. THANKS! If it's free on the web, rather than college property, I'll post a link here.
Woman of white garment, foreign woman, earth-eating woman, taking and giving life, she is Pele
"ONCE IN HIS LIFE, EVERY MAN IS ENTITLED TO FALL MADLY IN LOVE WITH A GORGEOUS REDHEAD" - LUCILLE BALL |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 461397
7/19/2008 1:10 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Remember, correlation does not prove causation. So a minor increase can be explained purely by chance. And that's not even IMHO, but scientific fact.
However, I would be pleased to hear your explanation of how increased luminosity from our perspective, an increase in photons hitting us, from a "full" moon so to speak, increases EQs here on earth?
As in HOW is it possible? A brief answer with relevant quote from the research paper (english please), would be fantastic!
----
I'm not one for the "luminosity" thing... sounds a bit far fetched and new ageish. But, I do believe that there is a gravitational difference on the earth at different cycles of the moon, and MUCH more strong at perigee during these cycles. You get higher high tides during full/new moon cycles AT perigee, if I remember the theory correctly.
The study I referred to was done in Tamba. It only looked at microearthquakes (ME's) but did find a lunar correlation.
[ link to www.ism.ac.jp]
A ton of research about the tidal effect correlating to earthquakes
[ link to en.wikipedia.org]
Thank you Geogal. I can agree with increased activity due to perigee, or at high tides -- scientifically verifiable physical stresses affecting the earth's crust. But still it would be nice to study an existing working hypothesis of the full/new moon theory whose effect, alone and by itself, affects or not the earth by known forces.
The pdf file doesnt seem to do this. In the Abstract, the the full moon was studied during an EQ and:
"we can confirm that the existence of the correlation is statistically significant and that the correlation is
strong just after the Kobe earthquake and that then it becomes weaker year by year."
Okay, there was a full moon during the Kobe EQ. That doesnt say much. I dont understand what is meant by the correlation significance statistic "weakens" year by year, except that there must have been other EQs later on without full moons which diluted significance. In other words as the sample size increases the significance of the correlation statistic decreases -- presumably to absuridity. Can you verify this before I delve into the research?
Even a speculative leap of how there would be correlation aside from tidal or perigee, is acceptable. Perhaps it involves the relational positions of all three orbiting bodies, the moon, earth and sun?
I am such a curious fellow that I would examine this research even it it presents some completely alternative process with hertofor unknown forces.
Just sayin'...
btw I'm a Geo kind og guy, myself... |
| Geogal
Hu ka pele, lava pour forth
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 1:15 AM
| | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
I don't know what they can or can't do with HAARP,
but as to generating energy,that might not be necessary
consider a transistor or an electron tube
you have the base,or bias supplying the power, in this case it could be a natural source
you have the emitter,which can be low power, its like a swing vote,so to speak and controls the power coming from the bias
and the receptor, that is, where the controlled power goes
if they are doing that on a grand scale there may be plenty of potential energy to tap Quoting: confusefed 470405
BUt that still does not explain the conduit to a specific spot on the planet. Is it sent like an EMP pulse? HOW is it sent to a SPECIFIC point in the earth? Earthquakes can be measured electrically IF the potential magnitude will be high enough, and even a resent study that I think Sireen-Reborn posted shows SOME ability to measure it even when it's minor IF you are set-up to read in the proper place (underground bore holes within a mile or so of the epicenters SENDING pulses and reading back, you could say, the ping time finds a slight difference up to a few hours prior an earthquake, reads stress and pressure)... So, not enough coverage yet to find the potential areas to set off. And there is not enough energy they could send that COULD force an area to pressurize and get the stress/strain. If you know of a conduit, I've ALWAYS been all ears to someone who thinks they can really explain it with specific details, not just generalizations. It's crazy the amount of energy coming out of say this Mw7.0, to even conceive of HAARP being able to pour that amount in... jsut doesn't make sense to me.
Woman of white garment, foreign woman, earth-eating woman, taking and giving life, she is Pele
"ONCE IN HIS LIFE, EVERY MAN IS ENTITLED TO FALL MADLY IN LOVE WITH A GORGEOUS REDHEAD" - LUCILLE BALL |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 461397
7/19/2008 1:16 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Let's define the Kobe earthquake as the main event, plus a series of aftershocks diminishing with time.... |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470429
7/19/2008 1:16 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
what's this d absorbtion ratio data about? NOAA page said this was an experimental deal here where they were assessing the data> Just happens to be right around Japan
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470429
7/19/2008 1:18 AM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470429
7/19/2008 1:22 AM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 461397
7/19/2008 1:26 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Okay Geogal I read the paper, it was short...
I can understand the data and method better: ie a series of 4500 aftershocks over 5 years, with frequency spikes with each new full moon, with a diminishing correlation significance over time...
Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved. Do you know of any follow up or further investigation that hypothesizes what possible forces could explain this correlation between full moons and EQs?
Thanks in advance... |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470429
7/19/2008 1:26 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
LOL okay try this.
no matter what it just breaks it into the reg home page link,
[link to ]
ww
w.swpc.noaa.gov/
dregion/dregion_q2.html |
| Geogal
Hu ka pele, lava pour forth
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 1:28 AM
| | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Thank you Geogal. I can agree with increased activity due to perigee, or at high tides -- scientifically verifiable physical stresses affecting the earth's crust. But still it would be nice to study an existing working hypothesis of the full/new moon theory whose effect, alone and by itself, affects or not the earth by known forces.
The pdf file doesnt seem to do this. In the Abstract, the the full moon was studied during an EQ and:
"we can confirm that the existence of the correlation is statistically significant and that the correlation is
strong just after the Kobe earthquake and that then it becomes weaker year by year."
Okay, there was a full moon during the Kobe EQ. That doesnt say much. I dont understand what is meant by the correlation significance statistic "weakens" year by year, except that there must have been other EQs later on without full moons which diluted significance. In other words as the sample size increases the significance of the correlation statistic decreases -- presumably to absuridity. Can you verify this before I delve into the research?
Even a speculative leap of how there would be correlation aside from tidal or perigee, is acceptable. Perhaps it involves the relational positions of all three orbiting bodies, the moon, earth and sun?
I am such a curious fellow that I would examine this research even it it presents some completely alternative process with hertofor unknown forces.
Just sayin'...
btw I'm a Geo kind og guy, myself... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 461397
Like I said, not all large earthquakes are set on the full/new moon phase, nor on perigee... It jsut seems that there's more stresses then so a slightly high likelihood, not a given.
The Kobe was full, boxing day 2004 was full... I'm actually in the process of looking at info from around 800AD to correlate large known earthquake dates to full moon cycles... IF I can find it, then correlate THAT to perigee and see what kind of similarity I can find.
Some happen on full moon during perigee, but others No... I've not seen a paper yet that has made this comparison, so it may be that it is JUST minor and JUST once the earth has been super stressed in the local that it's susceptible for a period following... I jsut find it terribly fascinating. Also, a friend of mine claims a 75% rating using MOSTLY moon phase info. [link to www.syzygyjob.com]
It's pretty likely that it does involve all three in the right positions (earth, moon and sun) likely something pretty solid there. I do think the sun has a LARGE effect on the earth... but, as to what specific gravitational type relationship (flares, etc...) it's not entirely clear... I think I'm gona focus on the moon-earth relationship until it comes clearer to me, THEN look at the sun-earth... maybe I should be doing it the other way about, but, for the moment, moon data is more easily obtained.
IF you are curious in this sense like me, suggestion... get a free account here and I can PM info to you to start us... If you want to get a paid account it'd make it easier. We can start a thread to post to each other stuff we find and others can join in, if they want... there's just so much info to wade through, it's easier with more than 1 pair of eyes and hands. Just utterly fascinating!
Woman of white garment, foreign woman, earth-eating woman, taking and giving life, she is Pele
"ONCE IN HIS LIFE, EVERY MAN IS ENTITLED TO FALL MADLY IN LOVE WITH A GORGEOUS REDHEAD" - LUCILLE BALL |
| Geogal
Hu ka pele, lava pour forth
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 1:33 AM
| | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Okay Geogal I read the paper, it was short...
I can understand the data and method better: ie a series of 4500 aftershocks over 5 years, with frequency spikes with each new full moon, with a diminishing correlation significance over time...
Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved. Do you know of any follow up or further investigation that hypothesizes what possible forces could explain this correlation between full moons and EQs?
Thanks in advance... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 461397
Let me look into that... not sure right now... could take a day or so... Tell ya what. This thread will get unpinned soon, so I'll be posting it here and on my "earthquake" thread...
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
I'll also post the link to any other papers I find, like the one for the Prof @ Hawaii State, on that thread and any future discussions people want. S'ok?
Woman of white garment, foreign woman, earth-eating woman, taking and giving life, she is Pele
"ONCE IN HIS LIFE, EVERY MAN IS ENTITLED TO FALL MADLY IN LOVE WITH A GORGEOUS REDHEAD" - LUCILLE BALL |
| Geogal
Hu ka pele, lava pour forth
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 1:36 AM
| | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
More on this tomorrow... heading to bed. I'll check and post to this thread in the morning when I'll much more awake... night all.
Woman of white garment, foreign woman, earth-eating woman, taking and giving life, she is Pele
"ONCE IN HIS LIFE, EVERY MAN IS ENTITLED TO FALL MADLY IN LOVE WITH A GORGEOUS REDHEAD" - LUCILLE BALL |
| Alienatti
User ID: 470444
7/19/2008 1:38 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Tesla cars are d a m n expensive right now. I'll wait a bit. |
| confusefed
User ID: 470405
7/19/2008 2:03 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
I don't know what they can or can't do with HAARP,
but as to generating energy,that might not be necessary
consider a transistor or an electron tube
you have the base,or bias supplying the power, in this case it could be a natural source
you have the emitter,which can be low power, its like a swing vote,so to speak and controls the power coming from the bias
and the receptor, that is, where the controlled power goes
if they are doing that on a grand scale there may be plenty of potential energy to tap
BUt that still does not explain the conduit to a specific spot on the planet. Is it sent like an EMP pulse? HOW is it sent to a SPECIFIC point in the earth? Earthquakes can be measured electrically IF the potential magnitude will be high enough, and even a resent study that I think Sireen-Reborn posted shows SOME ability to measure it even when it's minor IF you are set-up to read in the proper place (underground bore holes within a mile or so of the epicenters SENDING pulses and reading back, you could say, the ping time finds a slight difference up to a few hours prior an earthquake, reads stress and pressure)... So, not enough coverage yet to find the potential areas to set off. And there is not enough energy they could send that COULD force an area to pressurize and get the stress/strain. If you know of a conduit, I've ALWAYS been all ears to someone who thinks they can really explain it with specific details, not just generalizations. It's crazy the amount of energy coming out of say this Mw7.0, to even conceive of HAARP being able to pour that amount in... jsut doesn't make sense to me. Quoting: Geogal
well I'm certainly no expert and I can only theorize, but as for sending a signal to certain parts of the earth I can come up with a few ideas.
1) there may be areas of the earth due to certain mineral content are natural receptors to this energy, and can be targeted by frequency of signal
2)use of the earths magnetic fields to direct a signal to a certain latitude
3)use of magnetic,and or gravitational properties of the moon and or sun to direct a signal to a certain longitude
4)placement of multiple (include mobile i.e. ship mounted) antennae arrays creating the ability to force a signal to a certain geographical location
5)actual receivers placed at specific geographical locations to receive, direct or bounce a signal
just a few theories
starting points at least |
| Queen
User ID: 422489
7/19/2008 2:49 AM
 | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Here are the graphs. It's no where near the tsunami in 2004. Those graphs were solid black for two days. The entire page.
[link to aslwww.cr.usgs.gov]
If a lie becomes a truth after so many years it is a McCainism |
| StrandedSpaceMan
User ID: 470463
7/19/2008 3:22 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Whenever I see a quake in Japan I always think of this
David Hatcher Childress video I saw, where he shows some of the megalithic blocks that make up the walls of this ancient palace. It is who knows how old,uses no mortar,and has survived every quake that has hit the region.
And speaking of HAARP, I don't know what they can or can't
do with it; but there was a treaty signed in the 70s
between the US and Russia which forbade the modification of the weather and the triggering of 'natural' disasters via
weaponized technology.
Also when we speak of HAARP, we mostly think of the Alaska facility-yet there are many other arrays around the world,
at last count at least 50 others.
Added to the fact that since we are even aware of HAARP, then there is doubtless some much higher level of technology out there which we are not given to know about.
I have no idea which (if any) seismic events to blame on
technology and which to ascribe to nature. Just my 2 centzes. |
| Geogal
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 3:22 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Okay Geogal I read the paper, it was short...
I can understand the data and method better: ie a series of 4500 aftershocks over 5 years, with frequency spikes with each new full moon, with a diminishing correlation significance over time...
Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved. Do you know of any follow up or further investigation that hypothesizes what possible forces could explain this correlation between full moons and EQs?
Thanks in advance... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 461397
I hate insomnia... but it's useful for late night quiet research... Here's what I found. It's an index listing, I haven't yet found these specific papers on the web, unfortunately. It's not clear if the paper I linked here was the 2003 version or one of the later 2006 versions, but here's a listing of what Iwata has been into... there's a LOT more so, I'm just posting what's relevant. I'll keep looking to see if a paper is out that explains the process better. But, Iwata seems completely committed to finding a link between earthquakes and something to help predict them better, for his own fame or for the ability to help save lives... I dunno... but, there apparently are follow-up papers and talks to this subject.
Iwata, T., and Katao, H. (2007), A comparison of the two statistical model to represent the lunar triggering (invited talk), Seismological Society of America 2007 annual meeting, Hilton Waikoloa Village, Kona, USA, April 2007
Iwata, T. and Katao, H. (2006). Correlation between the phase of the moon and the occurrences of microearthquakes in the Tamba region: an analysis using a modified intensity function, The Seismological Society of Japan 2006 fall meeting, Nagoya Congress Center , Nagoya , November 2006.
Iwata, T. and Katao, H. (2006). A point-process analysis of the correlation between the phase of the moon and the occurrence of microearthquakes, The 2006 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Kawauchi Campus of Tohoku University, Sendai City, Japan , September 2006.
Iwata, T. and Katao, H. (2006). Temporal variation of the correlation between the phase of the moon and the occurrence of microearthquakes in the Tamba region, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Japan, May 2006 .
Iwata, T. and Katao, H. (2006). The correlation between the phase of the moon and the occurrences of microearthquakes in the Tamba region through point-process modeling, 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village campus, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, January 2006.
Iwata, T. and Katao, H. (2003). Analysis of a correlation between the phase of the moon and the occurrences of microearthquakes in the Tanba plateau through point-process modeling, The Seismological Society of Japan 2003 fall meeting, Kyoto International Conference Hall, Kyoto , Japan , October 2003.
.
Iwata. T. (2003). Tidal stress / strain and acoustic emission activity at the Underground Research Laboratory, Canada, 3rd International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Juriquilla, Mexico, May 2003. |
| Geogal
User ID: 373387
7/19/2008 3:36 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
well I'm certainly no expert and I can only theorize, but as for sending a signal to certain parts of the earth I can come up with a few ideas.
1) there may be areas of the earth due to certain mineral content are natural receptors to this energy, and can be targeted by frequency of signal
2)use of the earths magnetic fields to direct a signal to a certain latitude
3)use of magnetic,and or gravitational properties of the moon and or sun to direct a signal to a certain longitude
4)placement of multiple (include mobile i.e. ship mounted) antennae arrays creating the ability to force a signal to a certain geographical location
5)actual receivers placed at specific geographical locations to receive, direct or bounce a signal
just a few theories
starting points at least Quoting: confusefed 470405
Agreed, starting points, but some of the would take way too much coordination and some are so crazily complex as to make ones head spin. Ever heard the old saying that of-times the simplest explanation is the most accurate? The earth moves and has earthquakes from time to time. LONG history of this. [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
LONG before HAARP or the Tesla stuff was even a dream. How can all the current earthquakes be related to HAARP when there is such a long history of similar stuff? Did you know how much energy is in a single earthquake event? A Mag 4.0 is equivalent to a small nuclear weapon, or 1000 TONS of TNT, while a Mag 7.0 is equivalent to the LARGEST thermonuclear weapon EVER detonated, or 32 million TONS of TNT. What about earthquakes that this kind of energy would need to go through some 2000 to 4000 feet of water, such as ones at subduction trenches, like this current one off shore Japan? How do they get the energy through that?
I'm actually not trying to attack you with this, no matter how the above may sound. I'm trying to point out the Cruise boat size holes in the idea that HAARP causes earthquakes. I know I will not convince the converted. I've not a problem with it. I'm putting out the opposing side so anyone really confused about the issue knows what the scale and situation is. |
| <October>
User ID: 427959
7/19/2008 3:54 AM
 | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Okay Geogal I read the paper, it was short...
I can understand the data and method better: ie a series of 4500 aftershocks over 5 years, with frequency spikes with each new full moon, with a diminishing correlation significance over time...
Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved. Do you know of any follow up or further investigation that hypothesizes what possible forces could explain this correlation between full moons and EQs?
Thanks in advance... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 461397
This is a great thread! 
Regarding the effect of the moon...
As we can see, there have been studies done, and they DO say that there is a correlation.
But as AC461397 says...Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved.
I don't think that they ( scientists) CAN explain the forces involved. It doesn't fit into the scientific paradigm...
One would have to take into account emotions, LOTS of anecdotal evidence (cops, hospitals, taxi drivers) etc.
Scientific reality is that of the observer...which is where it falls short, imo.
We are MORE than observers...we are also living in the midst of all of this.
I do think that they have a handle on it...but you have to go into quantum physics and chaos theory, etc. to even come close to actually describing what this all means and how it all works...
Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved.
So...they CAN'T explain, they can only report their observations.
It's up to us to figure out wtf is actually happening, eh!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
KNOWING is power.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
First you feel it;
THEN you heal it...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~ |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470475
7/19/2008 4:37 AM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 470475
7/19/2008 4:44 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Okay Geogal I read the paper, it was short...
I can understand the data and method better: ie a series of 4500 aftershocks over 5 years, with frequency spikes with each new full moon, with a diminishing correlation significance over time...
Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved. Do you know of any follow up or further investigation that hypothesizes what possible forces could explain this correlation between full moons and EQs?
Thanks in advance...
This is a great thread!
Regarding the effect of the moon...
As we can see, there have been studies done, and they DO say that there is a correlation.
But as AC461397 says... Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved.
I don't think that they ( scientists) CAN explain the forces involved. It doesn't fit into the scientific paradigm...
One would have to take into account emotions, LOTS of anecdotal evidence (cops, hospitals, taxi drivers) etc.
Scientific reality is that of the observer...which is where it falls short, imo.
We are MORE than observers...we are also living in the midst of all of this.
I do think that they have a handle on it...but you have to go into quantum physics and chaos theory, etc. to even come close to actually describing what this all means and how it all works...
Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved.
So...they CAN'T explain, they can only report their observations.
It's up to us to figure out wtf is actually happening, eh!
i disagree October.
I think they know EXACTLY what is going on.
we are only told what they want us to know. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 461397
7/19/2008 5:40 AM | | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Okay Geogal I read the paper, it was short...
I can understand the data and method better: ie a series of 4500 aftershocks over 5 years, with frequency spikes with each new full moon, with a diminishing correlation significance over time...
Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved. Do you know of any follow up or further investigation that hypothesizes what possible forces could explain this correlation between full moons and EQs?
Thanks in advance...
----
This is a great thread!
Regarding the effect of the moon...
As we can see, there have been studies done, and they DO say that there is a correlation.
But as AC461397 says... Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved.
I don't think that they ( scientists) CAN explain the forces involved. It doesn't fit into the scientific paradigm...
One would have to take into account emotions, LOTS of anecdotal evidence (cops, hospitals, taxi drivers) etc.
Scientific reality is that of the observer...which is where it falls short, imo.
We are MORE than observers...we are also living in the midst of all of this.
I do think that they have a handle on it...but you have to go into quantum physics and chaos theory, etc. to even come close to actually describing what this all means and how it all works...
Unfortunately they dont attempt to explain the forces involved.
So...they CAN'T explain, they can only report their observations.
It's up to us to figure out wtf is actually happening, eh!
----
i disagree October.
I think they know EXACTLY what is going on.
we are only told what they want us to know.
I disagree with both of you. Science doesnt know everything that's going on, but scientists are just as imaginative as us to give it a good guess! Just like october imagined with chaos theory...
Could you elaborate, october? Or was that just a throw away? :) The thing is, EQ are massive events while photons or emotional moods just dont seem substantial enough -- either as mass or otherwise. Excuse the critique, but so far I dont have much faith in this theory. And I am not sure what it is you have against my concern for causality, ie moon beam forces causing EQs?
Geogal, I will follow your thread and participate where I feel I can. It would have been nice to have references from someone other than the same author. Anyway, you sound excited about EQ prediction and, I assume, have expertise in one of the physical sciences. Nice to see a more or less fellow traveller... |
| coolhandluke74
GLP Bouncer
User ID: 467538
7/19/2008 5:42 AM
| | Re: 7.0 Japan | Quote |
Another Quake!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Magnitude 7.0 - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
2008 July 19 09:27:05 UTC
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Earthquake Details
Magnitude 7.0 (Preliminary magnitude — subject to revision)
Date-Time
* Saturday, July 19, 2008 at 09:27:05 UTC
* Saturday, July 19, 2008 at 08:27:05 PM at epicenter
Location 11.076°S, 164.532°E
Depth 36 km (22.4 miles) set by location program
Region SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS REGION
Distances
* 292 km (182 miles) ESE (104°) from Kira Kira, Solomon Islands
* 493 km (306 miles) ESE (122°) from Auki, Solomon Islands
* 532 km (331 miles) ESE (110°) from HONIARA, Solomon Islands
* 1904 km (1183 miles) E (97°) from PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST=013, Nph=013, Dmin=533.5 km, Rmss=1.13 sec, Gp= 90°,
M-type=moment magnitude (Mw), Version=1
Source
* West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS
Event ID at00645962
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